# Open in Excel to get a better layout! # # Dataset Reference URL Comments # Temperature (GISS) Hansen et al. (2010) http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt "No uncertainty given, used the Berkeley ones instead" # Temperature (HadCRUT4) Morice et al. (2012) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/download.html Medians used # Temperature uncertainty (HadCRUT4) Morice et al. (2012) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/download.html Based on columns 5 and 6 (lower and upper bounds of the 95% confidence interval of measurement and sampling uncertainties around the ensemble median. These are the combination of fully uncorrelated measurement and sampling uncertainties and partially correlated uncertainties described by the HadCRUT4 error covariance matrices). Divided by 1.65 to go from 5 - 95% to 1 std # Temperature (BEST) Rohde et al. (2013) http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/auto/Global/Land_and_Ocean_summary.txt Uncertainty divided by 2 to go from 95% uncertainty to 1 sigma uncertainty # Temperature uncertainty (BEST) Rohde et al. (2013) http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/auto/Global/Land_and_Ocean_summary.txt # AMO (linearly detrended) http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data 6 month delay # AMO (Enfield) Enfield et al. (2001) http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data "9 year average of linearly detrended, 6 month delay kept. Latter 3 years based on averaging the available years worth of data" # AMO (Oldenborgh) van Oldenborgh et al. (2009) http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/iamo_hadsst.dat 6 month delay # AMO (Trenberth and Shea Trenberth and Shea (2006) http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/iamo_hadsst_ts.dat "6 month delay. Several years (1900, 1918, 1942, 1946) based on 10 or 11 month average due to missing values" # ENSO (NINO3.4) Kaplan et al. (1998) http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/inino5.dat 6 month delay # Anthropogenic forcing "IPCC AR5 (Myhre et al., 2013)" Combination of all forcings except volcanoes and solar # Anthropogenic forcing (GISS) Hansen et al. (2011) http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/Fe.1880-2011.txt "Combination of all forcings except volcanoes and solar, forcing adjusted to match IPCC in 1900 (0.252 W m-2 added)" # Anthropogenic forcing (linear) Linear trend with start and end corresponding to IPCC forcings # Solar "IPCC AR5 (Myhre et al., 2013)" # Volcanoes "IPCC AR5 (Myhre et al., 2013)" # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Best 5th 95th Best - 5th 95th - best max of 2 fraction 5th to std (divide by 1.65) # Forcing uncertainty calculation: IPCC AR5 says (Table 8.SM.5): 2.29 1.13 3.33 1.16 1.04 1.16 0.51 0.31 # Temperature Temperature Temperature (1 sigma) Temperature Temperature (1 sigma) AMO AMO AMO AMO ENSO Forcing Forcing unc. (1 sigma) Forcing Forcing Forcing Forcing # Year GISTEMP (LOTI) HadCRUT4 HadCRUT4 BEST BEST Linear Enfield Oldenborgh Trenberth & Shea Kaplan Anthro (IPCC) Anthro (IPCC) Anthro (GISS) Anthro (Linear) Sun (IPCC) Volcanoes (IPCC) 1900 -0.15 -0.198 0.0436 -0.147 0.046 0.1504 0.0105 0.044 0.1047 1.0875 0.26 0.0798 0.26 0.26 -0.028 -0.05 1901 -0.21 -0.267 0.043 -0.222 0.045 0.1137 -0.0204 -0.0189 0.1025 0.38 0.263 0.0807 0.266 0.2782 -0.043 -0.025 1902 -0.3 -0.412 0.0382 -0.363 0.042 -0.0388 -0.0526 -0.1353 0.04 0.1683 0.27 0.0829 0.269 0.2963 -0.048 -0.5 1903 -0.36 -0.481 0.0382 -0.465 0.04 -0.084 -0.0773 -0.1913 0.0228 1.37 0.277 0.085 0.274 0.3145 -0.036 -1.8 1904 -0.43 -0.528 0.0376 -0.498 0.0425 -0.3539 -0.1072 -0.3364 -0.1159 -0.3567 0.286 0.0878 0.281 0.3326 0.011 -0.8 1905 -0.29 -0.382 0.0364 -0.349 0.0365 -0.2503 -0.1337 -0.2041 -0.1181 1.0042 0.297 0.0912 0.287 0.3508 -0.016 -0.325 1906 -0.26 -0.294 0.0358 -0.263 0.038 -0.1351 -0.1727 -0.2044 -0.101 1.1717 0.306 0.0939 0.29 0.369 0.028 -0.175 1907 -0.42 -0.476 0.0364 -0.44 0.042 -0.1572 -0.1948 -0.0405 -0.041 -0.1125 0.315 0.0967 0.294 0.3871 -0.001 -0.225 1908 -0.43 -0.523 0.0345 -0.464 0.0365 -0.2099 -0.2039 -0.0198 -0.0206 -0.0208 0.326 0.1001 0.301 0.4053 0.02 -0.25 1909 -0.46 -0.536 0.0315 -0.521 0.038 -0.0879 -0.1996 0.12 0.1712 -0.5492 0.333 0.1022 0.305 0.4234 -0.002 -0.1 1910 -0.46 -0.496 0.0297 -0.494 0.034 -0.2371 -0.2127 -0.0759 0.0383 -0.9083 0.342 0.105 0.311 0.4416 -0.006 -0.075 1911 -0.44 -0.554 0.0291 -0.516 0.0405 -0.2378 -0.2082 0.0922 0.1144 -0.6758 0.35 0.1075 0.317 0.4598 -0.032 -0.05 1912 -0.41 -0.449 0.0291 -0.434 0.034 -0.1658 -0.1864 0.0027 -0.0051 0.7033 0.36 0.1105 0.323 0.4779 -0.045 -0.475 1913 -0.39 -0.439 0.0303 -0.4 0.037 -0.3151 -0.1848 -0.235 -0.1246 0.0492 0.371 0.1139 0.327 0.4961 -0.042 -0.6 1914 -0.23 -0.258 0.0364 -0.227 0.037 -0.3682 -0.201 -0.2572 -0.1284 0.7875 0.381 0.117 0.326 0.5143 -0.033 -0.25 1915 -0.16 -0.164 0.0424 -0.164 0.04 -0.095 -0.2006 -0.205 -0.0416 1.2308 0.393 0.1207 0.327 0.5324 0.013 -0.1 1916 -0.36 -0.398 0.0376 -0.408 0.041 0.0397 -0.2064 -0.0511 0.1293 0.0067 0.406 0.1246 0.333 0.5506 0.068 -0.075 1917 -0.44 -0.481 0.0406 -0.507 0.0405 -0.1962 -0.22 0.0105 0.0284 -0.8967 0.42 0.1289 0.339 0.5687 0.086 -0.05 1918 -0.32 -0.343 0.0436 -0.361 0.0435 -0.2338 -0.2111 -0.0121 -0.0015 -0.4458 0.432 0.1326 0.346 0.5869 0.121 -0.05 1919 -0.29 -0.284 0.0406 -0.284 0.046 -0.2332 -0.2093 -0.1077 0.03 1.09 0.442 0.1357 0.348 0.6051 0.073 -0.05 1920 -0.27 -0.252 0.0388 -0.27 0.0385 -0.2899 -0.2187 -0.0888 -0.0511 0.7542 0.454 0.1394 0.354 0.6232 0.039 -0.225 1921 -0.21 -0.19 0.0345 -0.193 0.0365 -0.2883 -0.2471 -0.166 -0.1072 -0.2775 0.46 0.1412 0.357 0.6414 0.012 -0.2 1922 -0.29 -0.309 0.0327 -0.289 0.0325 -0.2353 -0.226 -0.0884 -0.074 0.0475 0.463 0.1421 0.363 0.6595 -0.013 -0.075 1923 -0.26 -0.275 0.0303 -0.27 0.0325 -0.3519 -0.1891 -0.1823 -0.2027 -0.1867 0.468 0.1437 0.369 0.6777 -0.025 -0.025 1924 -0.24 -0.3 0.0315 -0.253 0.032 -0.1798 -0.1587 -0.0842 -0.0775 0.54 0.472 0.1449 0.375 0.6959 -0.029 -0.075 1925 -0.21 -0.219 0.0309 -0.213 0.0355 -0.2153 -0.13 -0.0032 -0.0078 -0.6083 0.476 0.1461 0.38 0.714 -0.015 -0.075 1926 -0.09 -0.112 0.0303 -0.07 0.032 -0.0063 -0.1118 -0.1275 -0.0026 0.8967 0.48 0.1474 0.388 0.7322 0.02 -0.05 1927 -0.18 -0.213 0.0285 -0.184 0.031 0.0978 -0.0678 0.0959 0.1965 0.0067 0.487 0.1495 0.394 0.7503 0.063 -0.05 1928 -0.16 -0.211 0.0297 -0.17 0.0315 0.0408 -0.0058 0.0712 0.1459 0.1425 0.496 0.1523 0.398 0.7685 0.033 -0.125 1929 -0.31 -0.349 0.0303 -0.347 0.0315 -0.0316 0.0383 0.1632 0.1498 0.08 0.504 0.1547 0.405 0.7867 0.028 -0.25 1930 -0.11 -0.138 0.0303 -0.121 0.0315 -0.1249 0.0677 0.1125 0.0143 0.5383 0.51 0.1566 0.409 0.8048 0.048 -0.15 1931 -0.07 -0.087 0.0303 -0.07 0.0315 0.1614 0.0749 0.2475 0.2017 1.2467 0.52 0.1596 0.418 0.823 0.009 -0.125 1932 -0.11 -0.135 0.0297 -0.11 0.03 0.2061 0.0754 0.2165 0.3151 -0.1058 0.531 0.163 0.422 0.8411 -0.016 -0.2 1933 -0.25 -0.273 0.0297 -0.294 0.03 0.2168 0.0866 0.3982 0.3782 -0.2375 0.542 0.1664 0.43 0.8593 -0.029 -0.175 1934 -0.09 -0.126 0.0291 -0.152 0.0295 0.0493 0.1257 0.2952 0.2423 -0.7858 0.551 0.1692 0.435 0.8775 -0.027 -0.1 1935 -0.14 -0.176 0.0285 -0.187 0.0295 0.0583 0.1611 0.1836 0.136 -0.2392 0.562 0.1725 0.44 0.8956 -0.008 -0.1 1936 -0.1 -0.143 0.0261 -0.135 0.0285 0.1022 0.1478 0.1736 0.181 0.1133 0.574 0.1762 0.446 0.9138 0.068 -0.075 1937 0.04 -0.025 0.0261 0.026 0.029 0.1418 0.127 0.1017 0.1408 0.0475 0.584 0.1793 0.453 0.9319 0.089 -0.075 1938 0.06 -0.005 0.0273 0.027 0.0285 0.3205 0.1314 0.2893 0.3007 -0.2808 0.595 0.1827 0.458 0.9501 0.08 -0.125 1939 0.01 -0.055 0.0321 -0.003 0.0305 0.1938 0.1336 0.2465 0.1253 -0.67 0.604 0.1854 0.462 0.9683 0.094 -0.1 1940 0.07 0.018 0.037 0.095 0.035 0.0414 0.1516 0.0967 0.1121 0.8017 0.613 0.1882 0.459 0.9864 0.07 -0.075 1941 0.08 0.018 0.0327 0.07 0.0365 0.0186 0.1782 0.0045 0.0694 1.4533 0.62 0.1903 0.45 1.0046 0.057 -0.05 1942 0.05 -0.023 0.0352 0.03 0.0435 0.2568 0.1759 0.0603 0.0526 0.8675 0.624 0.1916 0.444 1.0228 0.03 -0.1 1943 0.05 -0.003 0.0352 0.065 0.0435 0.0689 0.1293 0.1671 0.1122 -1.06 0.626 0.1922 0.438 1.0409 -0.005 -0.1 1944 0.13 0.15 0.0339 0.168 0.043 0.2201 0.1057 0.1206 0.0655 -0.2208 0.627 0.1925 0.43 1.0591 -0.011 -0.05 1945 0 0.033 0.0352 0.03 0.0425 0.3418 0.107 0.2279 0.1421 -0.4858 0.628 0.1928 0.43 1.0772 0.019 -0.05 1946 -0.08 -0.068 0.0339 -0.037 0.042 0.1214 0.109 0.0912 0.0216 -0.3117 0.628 0.1928 0.43 1.0954 0.025 -0.05 1947 -0.05 -0.038 0.0315 0.05 0.041 -0.0987 0.089 -0.0462 -0.0441 0.0158 0.628 0.1928 0.433 1.1136 0.093 -0.05 1948 -0.11 -0.035 0.0291 -0.05 0.042 -0.0193 0.1096 -0.0709 0.043 0.0717 0.631 0.1937 0.434 1.1317 0.146 -0.05 1949 -0.11 -0.076 0.0279 -0.084 0.034 0.0531 0.1198 0.197 0.0955 -0.215 0.635 0.1949 0.441 1.1499 0.123 -0.075 1950 -0.19 -0.174 0.0267 -0.162 0.032 0.0365 0.1026 0.1698 0.1032 -0.8617 0.641 0.1968 0.45 1.168 0.11 -0.075 1951 -0.06 -0.048 0.0255 0.014 0.0305 0.0771 0.0945 0.2456 0.0777 -0.42 0.638 0.1959 0.452 1.1862 0.037 -0.05 1952 0.02 0.033 0.0248 0.077 0.031 0.2546 0.1216 0.1983 0.0613 0.3633 0.641 0.1968 0.454 1.2044 0.045 -0.1 1953 0.09 0.101 0.0248 0.143 0.031 0.3118 0.1176 0.304 0.1548 0.1183 0.645 0.198 0.453 1.2225 0.025 -0.075 1954 -0.11 -0.128 0.0242 -0.056 0.029 0.1871 0.1327 0.2082 0.1085 0.285 0.649 0.1992 0.46 1.2407 0.003 -0.1 1955 -0.12 -0.185 0.0236 -0.108 0.0275 0.0484 0.1413 0.2177 0.1226 -0.5233 0.656 0.2014 0.465 1.2588 0.015 -0.05 1956 -0.18 -0.262 0.023 -0.178 0.0255 0.1452 0.1487 0.3088 0.2471 -0.7975 0.665 0.2042 0.469 1.277 0.064 -0.025 1957 0.04 -0.001 0.0224 0.071 0.032 -0.0553 0.1425 -0.0117 -0.1099 -0.1775 0.675 0.2072 0.477 1.2952 0.129 -0.025 1958 0.05 0.049 0.0224 0.071 0.024 0.189 0.1169 -0.0501 0.0261 0.9633 0.684 0.21 0.482 1.3133 0.194 0 1959 0.03 0.017 0.0212 0.045 0.023 0.1139 0.1035 -0.1296 -0.0867 0.275 0.694 0.2131 0.494 1.3315 0.159 0 1960 -0.04 -0.05 0.0212 -0.001 0.022 0.1433 0.0938 0.0173 0.0069 -0.1092 0.703 0.2158 0.51 1.3496 0.151 -0.125 1961 0.05 0.039 0.02 0.076 0.021 0.1988 0.0611 0.0735 0.0467 0.1075 0.709 0.2177 0.522 1.3678 0.11 -0.275 1962 0.04 0.018 0.0194 0.033 0.0235 0.0815 0.0561 0.0651 0.0579 -0.2308 0.714 0.2192 0.538 1.386 0.051 -0.325 1963 0.07 0.05 0.02 0.074 0.024 0.0672 0.0334 -0.1026 0.023 -0.11 0.718 0.2204 0.554 1.4041 0.038 -1.15 1964 -0.2 -0.224 0.0188 -0.2 0.0215 -0.0394 0.002 -0.204 -0.0487 0.4858 0.722 0.2217 0.568 1.4223 0.019 -1.8 1965 -0.1 -0.141 0.0188 -0.101 0.0215 -0.1489 -0.0172 0.0333 0.0154 -0.4508 0.733 0.225 0.584 1.4404 0.008 -1.075 1966 -0.04 -0.073 0.0188 -0.033 0.0205 -0.0999 -0.0444 -0.1601 -0.0547 1.1233 0.746 0.229 0.617 1.4586 0.012 -0.575 1967 -0.01 -0.076 0.0182 0.006 0.019 -0.0154 -0.0806 -0.0191 -0.0011 -0.0783 0.762 0.2339 0.64 1.4768 0.055 -0.375 1968 -0.05 -0.113 0.0176 -0.051 0.0175 -0.1688 -0.1269 -0.0013 -0.0516 -0.3792 0.78 0.2395 0.663 1.4949 0.086 -0.675 1969 0.06 0.029 0.017 0.087 0.0175 -0.0298 -0.1552 -0.257 -0.099 0.6342 0.799 0.2453 0.696 1.5131 0.077 -0.85 1970 0.04 -0.029 0.017 0.017 0.0175 -0.0464 -0.1692 -0.3318 -0.0668 0.5967 0.82 0.2517 0.732 1.5313 0.092 -0.425 1971 -0.07 -0.184 0.0164 -0.1 0.0175 -0.2436 -0.2003 -0.1801 -0.0829 -1.0617 0.855 0.2625 0.756 1.5494 0.082 -0.15 1972 0.02 -0.069 0.017 -0.007 0.0175 -0.3501 -0.2388 -0.3096 -0.2211 -0.3025 0.896 0.2751 0.786 1.5676 0.076 -0.1 1973 0.16 0.063 0.0164 0.093 0.016 -0.2943 -0.2483 -0.5209 -0.3568 0.9725 0.938 0.288 0.832 1.5857 0.044 -0.2 1974 -0.07 -0.211 0.0164 -0.125 0.018 -0.2745 -0.2636 -0.2464 -0.1621 -1.4017 0.979 0.3006 0.859 1.6039 0.023 -0.325 1975 -0.01 -0.145 0.0164 -0.071 0.017 -0.3798 -0.2767 -0.3103 -0.2321 -0.6225 1.017 0.3122 0.889 1.6221 0.006 -0.75 1976 -0.12 -0.238 0.017 -0.177 0.017 -0.3623 -0.2527 0.001 -0.0306 -0.9808 1.058 0.3248 0.909 1.6402 -0.003 -0.35 1977 0.15 0.046 0.017 0.12 0.016 -0.2538 -0.2213 -0.1318 -0.1631 0.5408 1.101 0.338 0.953 1.6584 0.04 -0.125 1978 0.05 -0.062 0.017 -0.003 0.016 -0.1676 -0.1988 -0.1585 -0.0883 0.3692 1.15 0.3531 0.992 1.6765 0.129 -0.2 1979 0.12 0.058 0.0139 0.084 0.0145 -0.1647 -0.1878 -0.1451 -0.0904 -0.04 1.205 0.3699 1.032 1.6947 0.167 -0.225 1980 0.23 0.093 0.0164 0.203 0.0155 -0.0273 -0.1589 -0.1498 -0.0432 0.315 1.253 0.3847 1.068 1.7129 0.15 -0.125 1981 0.28 0.142 0.0164 0.25 0.0175 -0.0673 -0.1502 -0.1888 -0.012 -0.1075 1.286 0.3948 1.114 1.731 0.147 -0.125 1982 0.09 0.013 0.0176 0.032 0.0175 -0.0919 -0.1498 -0.167 -0.0544 -0.0158 1.316 0.404 1.155 1.7492 0.094 -1.325 1983 0.27 0.191 0.0176 0.222 0.017 -0.1752 -0.1476 -0.2794 -0.2099 1.6583 1.35 0.4145 1.189 1.7673 0.091 -1.875 1984 0.12 -0.014 0.017 0.057 0.017 -0.1196 -0.1179 -0.1825 -0.0753 -0.5708 1.387 0.4258 1.236 1.7855 0.016 -0.75 1985 0.08 -0.029 0.0164 0.043 0.0165 -0.2843 -0.126 -0.1979 -0.2132 -0.8758 1.421 0.4362 1.276 1.8037 0.011 -0.325 1986 0.14 0.047 0.0158 0.092 0.0185 -0.2503 -0.1265 -0.3045 -0.224 -0.46 1.452 0.4458 1.32 1.8218 0.012 -0.35 1987 0.28 0.186 0.0152 0.231 0.017 -0.1478 -0.1195 -0.2596 -0.1717 0.9475 1.489 0.4571 1.365 1.84 0.015 -0.25 1988 0.35 0.201 0.0158 0.279 0.0175 0.1027 -0.1157 -0.1953 -0.0342 0.5608 1.532 0.4703 1.428 1.8581 0.095 -0.2 1989 0.24 0.121 0.0164 0.156 0.019 -0.1003 -0.1288 -0.0571 -0.0584 -1.54 1.568 0.4814 1.476 1.8763 0.151 -0.15 1990 0.39 0.291 0.017 0.346 0.019 -0.0715 -0.1232 -0.1224 -0.0557 -0.1367 1.599 0.4909 1.51 1.8945 0.118 -0.15 1991 0.38 0.253 0.0164 0.329 0.02 -0.0295 -0.0948 -0.0597 -0.0744 0.2567 1.627 0.4995 1.53 1.9126 0.126 -1.35 1992 0.19 0.102 0.0158 0.146 0.0205 -0.1407 -0.0714 -0.0807 -0.1322 1.1542 1.647 0.5056 1.535 1.9308 0.137 -3.025 1993 0.21 0.143 0.0158 0.181 0.0215 -0.2373 -0.0868 -0.1669 -0.1779 0.2317 1.666 0.5115 1.532 1.9489 0.063 -1.225 1994 0.28 0.203 0.0158 0.23 0.0215 -0.2341 -0.0511 -0.1883 -0.2011 0.1533 1.691 0.5191 1.541 1.9671 0.027 -0.5 1995 0.43 0.324 0.0139 0.377 0.0225 0.0048 -0.0137 0.0285 -0.0131 0.5292 1.722 0.5287 1.564 1.9853 0.02 -0.25 1996 0.33 0.179 0.0127 0.276 0.0215 0.0634 -0.001 -0.0774 0.0535 -0.6667 1.749 0.5369 1.575 2.0034 0.003 -0.175 1997 0.46 0.392 0.0139 0.417 0.021 -0.0361 0.0176 -0.0485 -0.0681 -0.0908 1.776 0.5452 1.569 2.0216 0.016 -0.125 1998 0.62 0.531 0.0145 0.568 0.023 0.2208 0.0607 -0.0747 -0.0494 1.7017 1.812 0.5563 1.6 2.0398 0.062 -0.075 1999 0.4 0.301 0.0139 0.333 0.0235 0.2657 0.0967 0.271 0.1417 -1.2617 1.849 0.5676 1.619 2.0579 0.104 -0.05 2000 0.4 0.294 0.0133 0.353 0.023 0.0843 0.1251 0.2043 0.1328 -1.1725 1.872 0.5747 1.617 2.0761 0.127 -0.05 2001 0.53 0.437 0.0133 0.49 0.0235 0.0271 0.1469 0.0995 -0.0468 -0.5217 1.902 0.5839 1.626 2.0942 0.114 -0.05 2002 0.61 0.492 0.0127 0.567 0.0235 0.1508 0.1809 0.076 0.0327 0.065 1.94 0.5956 1.648 2.1124 0.108 -0.05 2003 0.6 0.503 0.0115 0.552 0.024 0.0898 0.1847 -0.0758 -0.0839 0.7725 1.98 0.6079 1.679 2.1306 0.042 -0.075 2004 0.51 0.445 0.0103 0.456 0.023 0.2603 0.1715 0.1576 0.144 0.1892 2.024 0.6214 1.673 2.1487 0.012 -0.05 2005 0.66 0.539 0.0103 0.634 0.0235 0.2593 0.1668 0.0598 0.1281 0.5142 2.062 0.633 1.69 2.1669 -0.011 -0.075 2006 0.59 0.495 0.0097 0.579 0.023 0.2702 0.1902 0.2076 0.2189 -0.2383 2.102 0.6453 1.714 2.185 -0.016 -0.1 2007 0.62 0.483 0.0091 0.587 0.022 0.2548 0.2029 0.1636 0.1957 0.38 2.139 0.6567 1.733 2.2032 -0.017 -0.1 2008 0.49 0.388 0.0085 0.447 0.0225 0.1473 0.2031 0.2488 0.2128 -1.1383 2.179 0.669 1.753 2.2214 -0.025 -0.1 2009 0.59 0.494 0.0091 0.56 0.022 0.042 0.2005 0.1148 0.0101 -0.3083 2.213 0.6794 1.766 2.2395 -0.027 -0.125 2010 0.66 0.547 0.0085 0.63 0.022 0.2374 0.1828 -0.0779 0.1058 0.8292 2.254 0.692 1.791 2.2577 0.001 -0.1 2011 0.54 0.406 0.0145 0.507 0.0225 0.2652 0.1719 0.1256 0.2648 -1.1867 2.294 0.7043 1.811 2.2758 0.03 -0.125 # Temperature Temperature Temperature (1 sigma) Temperature Temperature (1 sigma) AMO AMO AMO AMO ENSO Forcing Forcing unc. (1 sigma) Forcing Forcing Forcing Forcing # Year GISTEMP (LOTI) HadCRUT4 HadCRUT4 BEST BEST Linear Enfield Oldenborgh Trenberth & Shea Kaplan Anthro (IPCC) Anthro (IPCC) Anthro (GISS) Anthro (Linear) Sun (IPCC) Volcanoes (IPCC) # # last decade - first decade 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.4 # # TCR based on dT and dRF (IPCC) 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.01 0.5 # TCR based on dT and dRF (GISS) 2.4 2.3 2.4